Time Machine Metrics

Revenue Forecast

Based on your revenue you have in a specific month, this model will predict the monthly revenue you will earn at the end of 12 months. This will take into consideration your revenue growth per month and the revenue which gets churned every month.

Starting Revenue

This is your average revenue of previous 90 days from today.
i.e (Your gross sales in last three months / 3).

Revenue Growth

(The % difference in revenue for last three months gross sales and its corresponding previous three months gross sales ) * (Last three months gross sales).

Revenue Churn

(The revenue lost in last three months / Gross sales in last three months ) * 100.

Example – Your starting revenue for June 2018 is $3000. If your revenue grows at $450 per month and churns at 5.6% per month, your May 2019 monthly revenue will be $5513.

Customers Forecast

Based on the number of customers you have for a specific month, this model will predict your customer count at the end of 12 months starting from this month. This will take into consideration your user or customer growth and the number of customers or users which gets churned every month.

Starting Users

Your total customers to date.

User Growth

(The % difference in users of last three months and its corresponding previous three months users ) * (Last three months users).

User Churn

{((Users lost in previous three months / total users till date) * 100) / 3}.

Example – You have 600 customers till June 2018. If your customer count grows by 45 every month but churns at 9.6% per month, you’ll be left with 507 customers at the end of May 2019.

10x Forecast

The 10x formula is:
3x traffic * 2x conversions * 2x average revenue per user

Actually, it’s 12x, but for simplicity, we assume a 10x growth.

Current Visitors

This is your average visitors of previous 90 days from today.
i.e (Your total visitors in last three months / 3)

Target Visitors

3x into current visitors

Current Conversion %

(User growth / current visitors) * 100.

Target Conversion %

2x into current conversion.

Current ARPU ($)

This is your ARPU till date.

Target ARPU ($)

2x into current ARPU.

Example – Let’s say you acquired 5000 visitors for March 2018. Out of which you were able to convert 0.75% of visitors and you gain $40 average revenue per user. So your total monthly revenue for that month is $1500.

Now applying the 10x formula based on your target visitors, target conversion and target ARPU, your Feb 2019 revenue will be $17995.